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Jersey’s young adult population has shrunk by 7% between 2017 and 2023, new analysis shows. But what is driving this trend? And what does it mean for the island’s future?
The decline of young adults appears to be driven by limited job opportunities, high living costs, and a blind spot in understanding and delivering for islanders under 40.
Local leaders are already sounding the alarm, with the hospitality industry describing the situation as "dire" and a Minister warning of potential "terminal decline" if action is not taken.
Before delving into the causes and implications of this ticking demographic timebomb, Express has analysed the data to assess the scale of Jersey’s population and migration changes—unpacking a trend that islanders have long suspected but is now coming into sharper focus.
The latest population estimates have revealed that Jersey is continuing to lose young people while Guernsey is attracting them.
The data, which tracks population changes between 2017 and 2023, has revealed the amount of Jersey residents in their 20s and 30s has dropped by 7% while Guernsey recorded a 6% increase.
Pictured: The percentage change in the Guernsey and Jersey population between 2017 and 2023 broken down by age.
The decline is particularly pronounced among 20- to 24-year-olds in Jersey, where the population has fallen by 13%, compared to Guernsey's 2% decrease.
The figures, provided by Statistics Jersey and the States of Guernsey, more broadly show that Jersey’s under-40 population fell by 5%, while Guernsey’s grew by 2%.
This demographic shift –informally dubbed the “bean drain”– is also reflected in Jersey's migration patterns, which suggest that more 'Jersey beans' are leaving the island than arriving.
Pictured: People with full residential status who have lived in Jersey for at least 10 years who left between 2017 and 2023, broken down by age group.
The 20-24 age group accounts for the largest proportion of people leaving with full residential status – those who have lived in Jersey for at least 10 years, or possibly their whole lives.
The figures show that 2,690 long-term islanders aged 20-24 left Jersey between 2017 and 2023 – one in four of all entitled residents who left during this period.
The continuing trend of qualified leavers may spell trouble for the island, with the Government already having acknowledged skills shortages in certain areas of the economy.
The pattern also relates to longstanding concerns about how Jersey will care for its older population in future without a large enough working population – with the data revealing that the number of over 60s increased by 15% between 2017 and 2023.
The latest census found that the ‘dependency ratio’ in Jersey had risen to 52%, meaning there were fewer people working than the number dependent on public services paid for by taxes.
Pictured: The overall changes in the Jersey population of 20- to 24-year-olds between 2017 and 2023.
A previous report estimated that Jersey would need a population of 150,000 people by 2040 in order to maintain the living standards that all islanders enjoy today.
But with birth rates at their lowest since 1995 and a consistent trend of young adults leaving, that target seems increasingly distant – with some States Members warning of a looming crisis.
Deputy Max Andrews, the youngest of the 2022 election haul at just 29, said the situation is “certainly not sustainable long-term for the island because the government is going to be losing out on income generated through taxation.”
Housing Minister and Reform Jersey Leader Deputy Sam Mézec (33) put it more starkly, warning of a “terminal decline” for the island if it cannot retain its young workforce.
“Young, talented, qualified people are going to easily find a better quality of life elsewhere, and the whole island will suffer from that. We need young people here, spending their money, working hard, adding to the vibrancy of the place.”
Statistics Jersey’s migration data does not analyse why young people are leaving the island, and no detailed public studies currently exist on the driving factors behind this trend.
To explore this, Express has tracked the population decline against cost-of-living pressures, lifestyle factors, and anecdotal evidence – speaking with politicians, experts, and young islanders to understand the root causes of the ‘bean drain’…
At first glance, the answer might seem simple: it’s a longstanding fact of life that, by the time they reach the end of secondary school, young people simply want to spread their wings.
Hundreds of 17- to 19-year-olds head to the UK for university each year, according to data from Skills Jersey.
Between 2016 and 2018, an average of 358 students made the move annually, rising to 438 between 2019 and 2021.
A report published in January by Policy Centre Jersey found that nearly 60% of taxpayer-funded students who go to university outside the island do not subsequently return.
Ex-Housing Minister and current backbench politician David Warr has witnessed this first-hand and thinks it’s “all about spreading your wings”.
Over the years, he has employed many young people through his coffee shop business, Cooper & Co, before seeing them leave for opportunities elsewhere. He has also observed it within his own family.
Pictured: Deputy David Warr feels that the population trends reflect young people simply “spreading [their] wings” (Jon Guegan)
“Jersey has always been a place where people come and go,” Deputy Warr said.
“I have two sons in their twenties working in London. Housing costs are ridiculous but they enjoy the vibe of a big city and the opportunity it provides. With the best will in the world, Jersey can't compete. [But] they still return to Jersey as they see it as home and maybe one day will settle here.”
The sentiment was echoed by 25-year-old Tom Carey who relocated to London two years ago.
“Jersey is a fantastic place to live in many ways regardless of age, but I think it’s fair to say that young people outgrow what their hometown offers them in their 20s in particular.
Pictured: Tom Carey believes that many graduates outgrow Jersey and choose to stay in the UK due to new relationships, the allure of city life, and a domino effect as friends begin to leave.
“There’s also a subconscious feeling that if you don’t leave the island after university, you never will.”
He also explained that many young graduates choose to remain in the UK because they form friendships or relationships during their studies and are keen to experience life in London or other major cities alongside their new social circles.
This, he says, has created a “domino effect” – “as soon as some of your friends leave the island, others begin to follow.”
While some argue that the trend is simply a rite of passage for young people, recent data suggests deeper issues could be at play.
Unlike Guernsey, where the young adult population remained relatively stable between 2017 and 2023, Jersey saw a 13% decline in its 20- to 24-year-old demographic.
Responses from the Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, which questions 1,500 people every year about their thoughts and behaviours, paint a picture of rising dissatisfaction with island life.
Ahead of this year's survey coming out, a comparison of 2017 and 2022 data revealed the percentage of 16- to 34-year-olds unhappy with life in Jersey more than doubled.
One person who felt this dissatisfaction with island life was 26-year-old Mhairi MacKenzie, who relocated to London two years ago to study journalism because the island was too “centralised on finance.”
The financial and legal sector is Jersey’s largest, constituting 21% of the overall workforce – one in five jobs.
Pictured: Responses to the 2018 and 2022 Opinions and Lifestyle Survey question “As a place to live, how satisfied are you with Jersey as a whole?” among 16- to 34-year-olds.
“I think the main reasons that drive young people away from the island are due to a lack of diverse job opportunities,” Miss MacKenzie said.
“When young people leave for this reason, they take the demand for those jobs with them which means nothing changes and the issue compounds over time.
“The more it goes on the more young people will feel like Jersey's not a place they can start a career and so they have to leave.”
Pictured: Mhairi MacKenzie believes Jersey's lack of diverse job opportunities drives young people away, creating a cycle where their departure further diminishes demand and perpetuates the problem.
The issue of Jersey’s job market emerged as a common theme among the ex-islanders Express caught up with, including 25-year-old food product developer Florence Gardner-Hillman.
The Sussex University graduate said: “The main reason I didn’t come back to the island after University was to do with job opportunities. There is not much food manufacturing in Jersey so there are limited options available for new product development.”
Pictured: Florence Gardner-Hillman said that limited job opportunities, particularly in her field of food manufacturing, were the primary reason she didn’t return to Jersey after university.
One politician who also noticed a “lack of job opportunities for young people” was Deputy Andrews, who argued that Jersey would need to diversify its economy and grow industries outside of financial services to retain them.
He said: “When you're looking at the structure of our economy, it's mainly financial services. Jersey's tech sector is not really flourishing, so there's not much for our young people in Jersey.”
Pictured: Deputy Max Andrews thinks that Jersey should make an effort to diversify its economy to retain young people. (Rob Currie)
The dominance of the finance industry, which constitutes 46% of Jersey’s economy, was also criticised by the co-CEO of the Jersey Hospitality Association and owner of the BeServed Group, which operates The Lido and recently closed craft beer bar JBs.
Marcus Calvani characterised the population trends as “dire” and claimed that government policies fail to address the root issues driving young people away.
The entrepreneur said: “As a father of two young kids, I don't see a future for them in this island. And to be honest, I don't really see a future for our family here within the next 10 years.
“This island has just become totally fixated on transactions and the actual quality of life has been sucked out of it, which is partly because the hospitality industry is being ignored by the government.
Pictured: Marcus Calvani, co-chief executive of the Jersey Hospitality Association, characterised the population trends “as dire” and argued that the government isn't doing enough to retain young people. (Rob Currie)
“To do business is really expensive and overly complicated. There's little support for any industry other than financial services.
“It is pretty disturbing that politicians and civil servants are just so uneducated about the reality of what makes up a balanced economy.”
While Mr Calvani did not seem overly optimistic about Jersey’s future, Economic Development Minister Deputy Kirsten Morel has promised to promote greater economic diversity to encourage young people to see a future in the island.
Pictured: Economic Development Minister Kirsten Morel has said he is keen to diversify Jersey’s economy and remove barriers to business. (James Jeune)
He said: “I am encouraging a vibrant and exciting economy that offers young islanders a more varied choice of career paths, and removing red tape to enhance opportunities for all business sectors.”
“Ultimately, a strong, growing and diversified economy is crucial in encouraging young islanders to remain in the island, as well as attracting new people to live and work here.”
But even if Deputy Morel succeeds in making the job market more diverse and engaging, another significant issue contributing to the exodus of young people is the cost of living.
Numerous ex-islanders have told Express that they did not leave because of a desire to explore other places or gain new experiences, but because they simply could not afford to live in Jersey.
Musician and islander of many years Dina Andrews, who performs as 'The Pink Cowgirl', bade a poetic farewell to the island in 2022 as a direct result of basic living costs.
Pictured: Country musician Dina Lynn relocated to Scotland in 2022 after sharing a poem that lamented overdevelopment, rising costs, and a lack of homes for future generations in the island.
Meanwhile, founders of the Jersey Seaweed organic fertiliser business, Francesca Stammers and Loftur Loftsson revealed to Express last year that they were looking for someone to continue their business after cost of living challenges saw them decide to swap Jersey for Mallorca.
Statistics show that living costs have risen significantly in recent years, with affordability being a particular issue.
The percentage of 16- to 34-year-olds struggling financially rose from 2% to 14% between 2017 and 2022, according to the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey.
The cost of living rose by 12.7% between March 2022 and 2023, with inflation hitting a high last year and reaching double digits for the first time in decades.
Pictured: Responses to the 2017 and 2022 Opinions and Lifestyle Survey question “As a household, how easy or difficult do you find it to cope financially?” among 16- to 34-year-olds.
The financial strain posed by these pressures is often felt more acutely by younger workers, who earn significantly less than their older counterparts on average.
As of June 2023, 20- to 24-year-olds were earning a median of £2,500 monthly while 45- to 49-year-olds were earning 66% more, with a median income of £4,140.
Someone who thinks financial pressures are the main driver of young people leaving is Carl Walker, Chair of Jersey's Consumer Council.
He said: “The cost of living on an island – food, household appliances, childcare, trades and services – all contribute to make Jersey a very difficult place to make ends meet, let alone become comfortable or even successful.”
The consumer champion also said the rising cost of housing is another “significant” reason that deters many young families from making Jersey their long-term home.
Housing prices in Jersey saw consistent annual increases between 2013 and 2022, peaking with an average price of £709,000 in the third quarter of 2022.
Pictured: Carl Walker, chair of the Jersey Consumer Council, believes that Jersey’s high housing costs and living expenses make it increasingly difficult for young families to see a future in the island. (Rob Currie)
Although the average price of a home last year was 3% lower than in 2022, housing affordability actually worsened during this period due to rising mortgage interest rates.
A report published by Statistics Jersey also found that a “working household with net mean income” could not afford a mortgage on “a median-priced house of any size or a two-bedroom flat” in 2023.
Statistics Jersey also found that 82% of people living in private rentals in 2022 were deemed as being in “rental stress” – spending more than 30% of their income on housing costs.
Meanwhile, the percentage of 16- to 34-year-olds dissatisfied with their housing more than tripled between 2017 and 2022, according to the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey.
Pictured: Responses to the 2018 and 2022 Opinions and Lifestyle Survey question “Overall, how satisfied are you with your current housing?” among 16- to 34-year-olds.
Someone acutely aware of these trends is Deputy Mézec, who argued that the high cost of housing is the most significant factor driving young people away.
The 33-year-old said: “The number one thing people in my friendship group talk about is the cost of housing. Those who haven't been able to buy a home yet are already feeling despondent. They also feel that over successive years, nothing has been done to target them to keep them in the island.”
He said this issue has prompted his friends, concerned about the affordability of family-sized homes in the future, to seriously consider relocating.
As Housing Minister, Deputy Mézec has been working to address these challenges by implementing policies to make housing more accessible and affordable for young people.
Initiatives include lowering the age requirement for social housing, easing transitions for first-time buyers into larger homes, and extending a shared-equity scheme to help islanders struggling to get a foot on the property ladder.
He is also calling for renter protections to prevent unjust evictions and excessive rent increases.
Pictured: Housing Minister and Reform Leader Deputy Sam Mézec believes that Jersey's housing crisis driving young people away and is calling for affordable housing and stronger renter protections. (David Ferguson)
The Minister said: “I think that housing availability is the main way to address the trend.
"We need to make renting a better experience for young people. Many are desperate to move out of their family homes but can’t afford to buy unless they live with their parents until their 30s.
“If they end up in the private rented sector, they've got no protections against revenge evictions or inflationary rent increases. You can't blame people for not finding that an attractive prospect.
“If we can make renting much easier for younger people leaving their family homes, that might give them more confidence to stay and feel they can save up for a deposit.
“But we've also got to make sure there are more affordable homes for young people to buy, and invest in schemes that target them specifically."
While those who are struggling financially are often pushed out of the island because they cannot afford housing or basic necessities, it is also the case that young people with disposable income are choosing to spend it elsewhere.
In recent years, a sense that there isn’t enough to do outside of work has become increasingly common.
Consumer Council Chair Mr Walker explained: “A few decades ago, the extra cost of living in Jersey could be countered to a degree by some of the benefits of living in the island.
“However, slowly but surely those are being eroded away and so relocating to the UK now looks an attractive and affordable solution for many, which is very sad.”
This comes as new figures have shown the economic contribution of the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector fell by 8% between 2021 and 2022, and a further 11% between 2022 and 2023.
Despite a 2019 government decision to allocate 1% of revenue expenditure to arts, heritage, and culture in an effort to boost cultural engagement, the impact of this initiative does not appear to be felt by young people.
The 2022 Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey found that 16- to 34-year-olds were attending fewer cultural events and activities than they were in 2017: cinema visits fell by 28%, live music by 33%, art exhibitions by 38%, dance shows by 67%, and plays, pantomimes or musicals by 44%.
Pictured: Responses to the 2018 and 2022 Opinions and Lifestyle Survey question “In the past 12 months how often have you attended the following types of cultural event in Jersey?” among 16- to 34-year-olds. It illustrates the proportion of islanders who have attended the type of event at least once.
Former islander Miss MacKenzie, who moved to London for more opportunities, shared her thoughts.
“The availability of things in Jersey wasn't a push factor for why I left the island but was definitely a pull factor for me in moving to London where there was much more to do and see in my spare time.”
“There isn’t much to do in Jersey unless you want to do finance and go to the pub every Friday and Saturday night.”
Picutred: Miss MacKenzie was drawn to London's vibrant options and contrasted it with Jersey's offerings centred around finance and nightlife.
Others, like Miss Gardner-Hillman, feel like the island doesn’t prioritise the younger generation.
“There is a massive lack of cultural activities for young people and it feels geared towards older people and families with kids,” the product developer said.
This sense of a cultural downturn coincides with the closure of major entertainment venues and nightclubs across the island in recent years.
Pictured: Fort Regent once hosted big-name acts in the white-domed venue, such as Ian Brown in 2002.
Fort Regent’s concert space and The Jersey Opera House closed their doors due to health and safety concerns in 2019 and 2020 respectively, leaving the island without a large-capacity entertainment venue.
The multimillion-pound restoration of the Opera House has faced multiple delays, and while the Jersey Development Company has been recently confirmed to oversee the redevelopment of the Fort, few details beyond a new skate park have been made public.
Pictured: The completion of the major refurbishment project at Jersey Opera House is scheduled for next autumn. (Rob Currie)
The island's nightlife scene, which flourished from the 1970s through to the 1990s, has also seen a dramatic decline.
Multiple venues have ceased operations in recent years, including ROJOs this summer, Ce Soir in 2023, WYSIWYG in 2020, and Kokos in 2017. With Havana nightclub set to close next month, Jersey will be left with just three operating nightclubs.
In the midst of the challenges facing Jersey, there are young change-makers determined to make a difference and introduce fresh ideas — with hopes of keeping the island's youth rooted here.
Francisco Brazao and Sam Tumkaew, who founded an events company called The Loft in 2021, are working to reinvigorate Jersey's once-thriving music scene.
They aim to do this by creating a community of dance music lovers, bringing a flavour of the globally popular ‘boiler room’ DJ scene to Jersey, and pushing for nightlife-friendly legislative changes.
Joining longstanding calls from pub and nightclub owners, they are also campaigning for more support for live music and changes to the island’s half-century-old alcohol law, which prohibits alcohol promotions like happy hours and contributes to the expense of going out.
Pictured: Sam Tumkaew and Francisco Brazao believe a vibrant nightlife scene could help retain young islanders. (Rob Currie)
Deputy Mézec, who also performs in a rock band called Flashmob, agreed that the “ancient” licensing law needed to be changed.
“Going out is really expensive. When I was 19, even on a student income, I could afford to go out three times a week and enjoy myself. I could get a pint of beer for £3.20. I get shocked when I go to places and £6.50 is becoming normal,” he reflected.
The politician also warned that the trend of nightclub closures could stifle youth culture by limiting opportunities for local DJs to perform and for audiences to “enjoy themselves.”
Pictured: Deputy Sam Mézec (right) is a guitarist with the local rock band Flashmob.
While The Loft pair admit they are nervous about the exodus of young people, they are hopeful that their efforts will help to retain some.
"More people would think about staying if there are things for people to do," Mr Tumkaew said.
But they know they can't do it alone. While the industry is traditionally competitive, they say they are looking forward to collaborating and working with other promoters to ensure everyone in the nightlife industry can win.
"We can't change the scene alone. It is about everyone coming together to push it forward,” they added.
While some young people are driving change from the bottom up, the government is also working to address the challenges posed by Jersey’s recent demographic trends.
Deputy Kirsten Morel maintains he is “absolutely committed to the aim of delivering an economy and therefore a society in which Jersey’s young people can see themselves living for their whole lives”.
Last autumn, Deputy Morel changed the name of his Ministerial portfolio to ‘Sustainable Economic Development’ “This is an important change, as the overall priority for the economic development of our island is that the economy should flourish long into the future,” he said at the time.
Just days later, Deputy Morel released the ‘Future Economy Programme’, a strategy document outlining his plan to enhance innovation, productivity, and skills development in Jersey, while addressing the challenges brought about by an ageing population.
He said the framework for this strategy includes almost 100 actions, spanning short, medium, and long-term goals, to drive sustainable economic growth.
Pictured: Changes in the Jersey population between 2017 and 2023.
Deputy Morel added that the Council of Ministers are also working to attract young people to return to Jersey, bringing with them the skills and knowledge they have gained while away.
As part of this, the government has launched a new website that allows those with ties to the island to stay in touch, share stories, and learn about Jersey-based opportunities.
However, these initiatives cannot mark the end of the road: staying attuned to the evolving wants and needs of Jersey's young people is crucial, as Deputy Warr explained.
"My generation, with our lived experience, should be engaging with young people and encouraging them to speak up. We in turn need to listen."
Jersey may need 4000 extra care workers by 2040 (June 2024)
EXPLAINED: How much more housing does Jersey need? (March 2024)
New stats highlight continuing 'Bean drain' (Nov 2023)
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