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Guernsey's Chief Minister is facing pressure to resign – or face a vote of no confidence – after suggesting there should be an early general election because he cannot get backing for his flagship tax policy.
Speaking on Friday evening, at the conclusion of a four-day debate over how the running of the island should be financed in future, Chief Minister Peter Ferbrache said the States of Guernsey was at an "impasse".
A key pillar of his plan had been introducing a Jersey-like Goods and Services Tax (GST) – a proposal that had already failed once before following huge public backlash.
With a financial deficit of £100m per year facing the island, Deputy Ferbrache's Policy and Resources Committee (P&R) wanted to bring in the consumption tax to pay for vital infrastructure, including development work at the island's hospital.
Pictured: A previous protest against GST in Guernsey attracted thousands.
P&R had claimed a GST of 5% (or 6% if food were excluded) to be brought in from 2026 was the only viable way of ensuring the island's books could be balanced without huge levels of borrowing and cuts to public services.
After losing the vote, Deputy Ferbrache told the BBC: "What we are going to seek to do is seek an early election if the States so decides, because we are at an impasse.
"Whoever is in charge if there is such a thing in Guernsey politics, which I don't think there is, is not able to do anything, we need an election and the public can then vote."
Guernsey’s Chief Minister says proposals are set to be submitted for an early general election. pic.twitter.com/OJjOQxVLLY
— BBC Guernsey (@BBCGuernsey) October 20, 2023
Above: BBC Guernsey shared the above video on X shortly after the close of this week's States meeting.
Guernsey's next island-wide election – the second to be held – is scheduled for June 2025. If the island were to go to an early election, it would be unprecedented in modern times.
It would also require some heavy lifting politically to take such a motion through the States.
The prospect of an early election is thought to require an overwhelming majority needed to secure it - as opposed to the simple majority of one needed for other States propositions - and then Privy council approval. Those two actions could take months to achieve in themselves.
Elections come under the remit of the States Assembly and Constitution Committee (SACC), which is chaired by Deputy Carl Meerveld – one of the most vocal opponents to a goods and services tax.
Express has since learnt that discussions on the ramifications of launching an early general election and whether the timeframe before one could be compressed were held on Friday and Saturday.
Deputy Meerveld said that his committee were consulted about potential proposals for an early election on Friday morning, but that these were not laid down officially in the end. In any case, he said his committee felt there was a need to examine the idea "in more detail".
Pictured: Deputy Meerveld not only presides over SACC but led the charge against GST.
If SACC had been instructed to get the wheels turning on a general election on Friday, Deputy Meerveld said a potential early election could be held in October 2024, however this timeline has now been delayed by roughly three months according to Deputy Meerveld because the earliest a proposition could be debated will be during the next debate.
Deputy Meerveld said the dust still hasn’t settled after Deputy Ferbrache’s shock announcement last week and he doesn’t think P&R will be successful in its plans, which would essentially require the current tranche of deputies to fire themselves.
“I think there is general surprise and disappointment at the thermonuclear ‘let’s have an election’ bomb – from a political perspective, I can’t see the value in them doing it," he explained.
“And of course, people have to remember, unlike the UK where the Prime Minister can call an early election – in Guernsey, the turkeys have to vote for Christmas.
"You have to come back to the deputies and ask them to fire themselves."
“What are the Members going to say?" he continued.
"P&R has failed twice to get its flagship policy through the States, the Assembly is more likely to say, ‘You are the leaders, and it was your failure to persuade us and the public to support your initiative, so instead of us resigning... you’re fired’.”
Pictured: A summary of key tax changes in the Channel Islands over the years.
And the proposal doesn’t even need to make it that far if a motion of no confidence is lodged first.
“Policy and Resources has exhausted its one option,” said Deputy Charles Parkinson. “They only had one tool in the box and it's broken.
“I think the call for an early general election is the right one, but in the meantime I don’t think P&R should remain in office.
“I will [put forward a motion of no confidence] if they don’t resign.”
Express understands that P&R will be publishing a statement shortly on its plans for an early general election.
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Express previously spoke to Frank Walker, a previous Chief Minister of Jersey, about how and why a Goods and Services Tax was introduced in Jersey – and why he has no regrets about it...
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