Analysis: Hail to the Chief... But who will it be?

Monday 04 June 2018

By later today we should know who the island’s Chief Minister is.

In the words of the US presidential anthem: “Hail to the Chief we have chosen for the nation, Hail to the Chief! We salute him, one and all. Hail to the Chief, as we pledge cooperation, In proud fulfilment of a great, noble call.”

The lyrics might not fit exactly – in the last Council of Ministers there weren’t too many pledges of co-operation – but, whoever is chosen is potentially the island’s political leader for the next four years and will have a major impact on all our lives: “a great and noble call."

Two candidates are battling it out, the current Chief Minister, Senator Ian Gorst, who is seeking an unprecedented third term – US presidents are limited to two – and 'newbie', Senator John Le Fondré.

Only States members get to vote, and it’s a case of winner takes all – whoever gets 25 or more of the 49 votes is in.

So far the Chief Ministerial newcomer is in the lead. 15 members have signed his form: Senator Sarah Ferguson; Constables John Le Maistre, Chris Taylor, Mike Jackson, Richard Vibert, John Le Bailly, Richard Buchanan, and Karen Shenton-Stone; and Deputies Judy Martin, Kevin Lewis, David Johnson, John Young, Lindsay Ash, Gregory Guida, and Rowland Huelin. Together with his own vote, that brings his total to 16. Interestingly, nine of his signatories are ‘new’ States members.

By contrast, only 10 people have signed Senator Gorst’s nomination form: Senators Kristina Moore, and Steve Pallett, Constables Simon Crowcroft, Deidre Mezbourian, and Philip Le Sueur; and Deputies Susie Pinel, Richard Rondel, Richard Renouf, Scott Wickenden, and Graham Truscott. Again, with Senator Gorst voting for himself, that brings his total up to 11. Not one of those signing Senator Gorst’s form is a new face.

Pictured: Of the 49 States members, 16 have declared for Senator Le Fondré, 11 for Senator Gorst, and 22 are still to publicly declare.

That leaves 22 politicians yet to declare their allegiance: Senators Lyndon Farnham, Tracey Vallois, and Sam Mézec; Constables Len Norman, Sadie Le Sueur-Rennard; and Deputies Carolyn Labey, Monty Tadier, Russell Labey, Carina Alves, Geoff Southern, Rob Ward, Steve Ahier, Mike Higgins, Mary Le Hegarat, Trevor Pointon, Kirsten Morel, Steve Luce, Jeremy Maçon, Kevin Pamplin, Louise Doublet, and Jess Perchard.

So, Senator Le Fondré has to convince nine of the ‘undeclared’ group to vote for him, while Senator Gorst must secure the support of 14.

Pictured: Could how Senator Sam Mezec and his Reform party colleagues vote decide the outcome of who becomes Chief Minister?

There's only one political party in the States: Reform Jersey. In the past, they’ve been highly critical of the Council of Ministers, and Senator Gorst in particular. Three Reform politicians – Deputies Mézec, Southern, and Tadier all supported a vote of no confidence in the Chief Minister in June last year. But, politics is a murky world, and sometimes it’s a case of supporting the devil you know rather than the one you don’t. And, of course, what’s being offered as an inducement? One of the party’s watchwords has been unity – so, unless they break ranks – their five votes should all be going to one candidate. Should that be Senator Le Fondré, that would leave him needing just four from the remaining 17. It's a strong position for the party to be in.

There’s much talk of the new faces wanting to see a new look States, and sweeping away the old. Perhaps that’s why so many of them seem to be supporting Senator Le Fondré. Of those remaining 17, five are new faces, so, if they followed the trend, Le Fondré would be in with a vote to spare.

If Reform don’t vote for Senator Le Fondré, but he still carried the remaining newcomers, he’d still only need four votes from the remaining 12 undecided.

Pictured: Last year Constable Sadie Le Sueur-Rennard, and Deputies Higgins and Maçon supported a vote of no confidence in the Chief Minister. Will they support Senator Gorst this time around?

Of those floating voters, three also supported the vote of no confidence in Senator Gorst last year: Constable Sadie Le Sueur-Rennard, and Deputies Higgins and Maçon. Their support would mean - even without Reform backing - Le Fondré would be just one seat away from claiming victory, with nine politicians still unaccounted for.

Then there's public opinion: numerous politicians, including Reform's Deputy Tadier and Senator Tracey Vallois, used social media as a sounding board to hear islanders' views on who should take the top spot. But how seriously will they take those? Express' poll suggested that the weight of public feeling was behind Senator Le Fondré, having secured 30% of the vote in a survey of 1,389 people.

It’s going to be very close. Who will Constable Len Norman – the longest serving States member vote for? Is he ‘establishment’? Then there’s Deputy Steve Luce, although a member of the previous Council of Ministers, he did have his disagreements with members. Likewise with Senator Lyndon Farnham - will he side with Senator Gorst in the hope of keeping a ministry? Or does he fancy his chances more under a new Chief Minister? Poll topper Senator Tracey Valllois has made it clear she wants to be Education Minister, and, if rumours are to be believed, both candidates would be happy to give her the job, so who will she support? And will her backing of a particular candidate influence any of the other undecided?

Pictured: The results of Express Chief Ministerial poll put Le Fondré on top, with Gorst following.

Traditionally, Chief Ministers have appointed their ministers from those who’ve backed them. So, if successful, would Senator Le Fondré jettison the wealth of experience backing Senator Gorst, or would he appoint from their ranks and in doing so disappoint those who’ve supported him? And if Reform back the wrong horse, could they find themselves left out in the cold? Despite all the horse-trading, it’s likely both candidates will invite the other into their council “as a salute to cooperation."

The States sitting starts at 09:30 today. Each candidate has up to 10 minutes to address the Assembly and then faces up to an hour’s questioning from members. It’s then the turn of the other candidate. Both must excuse themselves when the other is talking or giving their answers. A vote is then taken.