#JSY2018: Girl Power! Vallois or Moore to top the Poll?

Wednesday 16 May 2018

It looks like being a good night for two female Deputies who are likely to be fighting it out at the top of tonight's Senatorial poll.

The Bailiwick Express Exit Poll suggests that the top two Senators tonight will be Deputies Tracey Vallois and Kristina Moore, but it looks like being too tight to call on who will finish in first place.

The Exit Poll involved one-to-one interviews with 700 voters done at random times of the day today, and conducted outside every single polling station.

With Deputies Vallois and Moore likely to be first and second, the next two places are equally tightly contested. They are likely to be fought over by current St. Lawrence Deputy John Le Fondré, and the poll topper from the last General Election, and Chief Minister, Senator Ian Gorst - who's vote has fallen significantly since the last time he stood. 

Reform Chairman Sam Mézec is then likely to come next, marking an elevation from his current position as a St. Helier Deputy. 

But the final three places are simply too close to call. In the mix are Senators Lyndon Farnham and Sarah Ferguson, Deputy Simon Brée, Constable Steve Pallett, along with newcomers Anthony Lewis and Moz Scott. 

The Exit Poll has a margin of error of around +/- 3% meaning any group of three from that set could be successful - which suggests it's going to be a tense night for Farnham, Ferguson, Brée and Pallett, at least one of whom is likely to lose their seat in the States - maybe more than one. 

The full table looks like this:

With a total electorate likely to be around 25,000, you can multiple each of the above by 35, to get the likely islandwide total, based on a sample of 700. 

That means the island-wide totals for the top 12 are likely to be:

That table shows that there could be just 1,470 votes between 6th and 11th place, making it a very tight election, and raising the possibility of a recount. 

But it's likely to be a disappointing night for Gino Risoli, Stevie Ocean, Frank Luce, Phil Maguire and Gordon Troy. The Exit Poll indicates that they won't be elected today, with the bottom of the Poll being either Phil Maguire and Stevie Ocean.