Health impact of ageing population laid bare in new reports

Thursday 08 February 2024

Dementia and heart failure rates are set to soar over the next two decades as Jersey's population ages, a new report has shown.

The Disease Projections Report, issued today by Public Health, forecasts a 52% rise in dementia cases to 1,250 by 2043, while 1,680 islanders will experience heart failure, an increase of 42% from the 2023 figure.

The projections come as the proportion of islanders who are aged 65 or above is set to increase from the current 19% – just over 20,000 people – to around 25%.

A related report has also been published covering those with more than one long-term health condition, known as multi-morbidity.

This shows that 14,140 people are classified in this way – an increase of 765 people from 2022, which is forecast to rise by a further 20% by 2043.

Pictured: The Disease Projections Report, issued today by Public Health, forecasts that 1,680 islanders will experience heart failure by 2043.

Multi-morbidity is shown to become more common with age, the report notes, affecting more than half of those who are 85 or over.

The most common single morbidity was shown to be high blood pressure, referred to as hypertension – 17,800 people are affected by this diagnosis.

The number of people living with a long-term illness or disability that limits their daily activity is projected to increase by 12% (+1,850 people).

Projections about future levels of demand for healthcare are also included in the reports.

Islanders are forecast to be seeking an additional 9% appointments with their GP by 2043, by which time the number of hospital bed days is projected to increase by 30%.