Survey: 80% say we're going wrong

Monday 25 July 2016

Jersey's politicians might be off on their summer break, but the latest poll to assess how they are they doing won't make very good holiday reading.

Around six hundred people completed it, with 87% of them reporting that they will be voting in the next elections. And that's a stat which might concern politicians who want to get in again, as 80% of those respondents said they felt the Island was heading in the wrong direction.

The online survey was issued by campaign group, Change.je, and was completed by respondents in the days after Ministers published their plan for running the Island's finances for the next three years - known as the Medium Term Financial Plan Addition - it'll be debated by the States in September, and aims to fill a looming £113m annual deficit in the Island's finances by 2019, through a combination of investment in essential services along with cuts, new ways of working and extra charges. 

Ministers are spending £40,000 in three months to communicate what they want to do to Islanders, but it seems they have their work cut out: Change.Je’s online questionnaire shows 78% of those who responded disapproved with how the States is doing its job. That’s only fractionally down on what it was three months ago when it was 83%. 

Public opinion of the Council of Ministers seems to show a similar trend. Three months ago 84% of those polled were in the collective 'disapprove' groups. That’s now dropped to 81%. Again, an indication that the Council of Ministers might be slowly going up in public opinion, but that they still have a long, long way to go.

When asked directly if things in the Island were moving in the right direction 80% said the Island was going in the wrong direction, but again that’s a better result than three months ago, when it was 81%.

Senators Philip Ozouf and Alan Maclean continue to be the most unpopular politicians. They had 'unfavourability' ratings of 71 and 70% respectively.

By contrast St Helier Deputy Sam Mezec, and the parish’s constable Simon Crowcroft, got 'favourability' ratings of 51 and 50% respectively.

But, it seems it’s the voters of St John who are happiest with their politicians’ performance. Both the parish constable, Chris Taylor, and its deputy, Tracey Vallois, got 'favourability' ratings of 58%. None of those polled were unhappy with Deputy Vallois. It’s possible though the findings are skewed – only 12 people answered this question.

Interestingly – in the light of recent political events – 17% of those surveyed couldn’t recognise Senator Zoe Cameron, and a further 46% weren’t impressed with her performance. She quit the States earlier this month in frustration, saying – in part she was being thwarted by the Council of Ministers – and it was impossible to get anything done.

Her departure’s prompted a by-election. It’s being held on Wednesday 7^th September. Amongst the aims of Change Jersey are to get more people registered to vote, and to get more of the electorate to go to the polls. The survey shows 90% of the respondents are registered, and that 87% said they would be voting in the General Election in 2018.

But, perhaps by the very nature of politics, those that have filled in the survey are engaged in politics and are likely to vote. What the figures will actually be like in September is another thing. Early indications are there won’t be a big turn out.

The survey asked 56 questions – but respondents couldn't answer all of them – in some you were asked your opinions on your deputy or your constable. Around 600 people took part.

James Rondel of Change.je says: "Our survey is self-selecting and therefore only limited weight can be attached to its results. However when analysing the responses of those who answered, it is clear that the participants continue to hold both the States Assembly and the Council of Ministers in low regard. 

Interestingly the budget and government spending was ranked as what participants considered to be the single most important priority facing the Council of Ministers over the next two years. With the recent announcement of the Medium Term Financial Plan, it will be interesting to monitor how participants respond to its content in our next poll."