“Nuclear attack? We’re more worried about flu”

Tuesday 10 November 2015

The States are more concerned about the risk of a flu pandemic in Jersey than the risk of the Island coming under nuclear attack.

According to the States’ Community Risk Register (CRR), the most high-ranking threat to Jersey is an influenza pandemic.

Other potential risks regarded as “very high” include oil spills, storms and gales, the rapid sinking of a passenger ship, a major contamination incident and a collision between two commercial vessels.

The CRR grades risks according to likelihood and impact, with “very high” rating meaning the Emergencies Council (EC) and Emergency Planning Board (EPB) consider regardless of the chance of a risk happening, potential consequences mean it requires immediate attention.

The CRR contains over 40 risks that could result in an emergency or a major incident, including:

- Low temperatures and heavy snow, severe space weather, flight disruption as a result of volcanic ash and an accident on a major trunk road are all rated as "high risk".

- Drought, wildfire, collapse of a dam and a commercial air accident are all classified as "medium risk", meaning they could cause disruption or short-term inconvenience.

- "Low" risks are deemed those with a low chance of happening, or an insignificant impact, these include failure of the electricity network, a major air quality incident, and a major land contamination incident.

All these risks are placed above that of a nuclear attack, or even fall out from a nuclear attack on the UK.

In response to a recent Freedom of Information request into Island plans in the event of a nuclear attack, the States revealed they do not have a specific “war book” detailing what would happen in the event of nuclear attack.

The response to the FOI request said: “Nuclear attack does not feature on the register as, currently, the likelihood is considered below that required for rating despite the fact that the impact would be very high. 

“For a States multi-agency plan to be discussed against a specified risk, the risk would normally have to feature in the high ‘orange’ or ‘red’ category. Due to this, the States does not hold a specific plan dealing with a nuclear attack. Additional guidance is also taken from the UK National Register of Civil Emergencies.”