WATCH: 1,100 cases and one in ten islanders isolating by Boxing Day...if no action is taken

Thursday 03 December 2020

As much as 10% of the population could be in isolation as a result of testing positive to covid-19 or being in contact with the virus by Boxing Day if current infection trends continue.

The Chief Minister, Senator John Le Fondré, described the figures as “sobering” as he announced a ‘lockdown lite’, involving the closure of all hospitality and fitness venues and a 2m distancing law coming back into force.

The ‘circuit-breaker’ announcement follows Jersey experiencing its worst ever rise in confirmed case numbers in a single day, with 56 identified in the past 24 hours taking the total to more than 330. 

Video: The "sobering" figures were shared during a press conference.

Eight of the positive cases are in hospital and another one in a care home, the Health Minister Deputy Richard Renouf said. 

The current increase in positive cases has been caused by each case infecting more than one person with the reproductive number estimated at between 1.6 and 2.0. This Dr Ivan Muscat, the Deputy Medical Officer for Health, said, will lead to case numbers to rise “exponentially”.

In what the Health Minister described as “a realistic worst-case scenario”, cases would continue to double every 13 days, resulting in 1,100 cases by Boxing Day.

Pictured: The reproductive rate has increased, leading to an exponential growth in the number of cases.

With an average of 10 direct contacts per case, this would push around 12,000 into self-isolation. That would also include 10% of healthcare staff.

“This would amount to more than one in ten islanders being in self-isolation over the festive period and considerable strain being placed on our healthcare system,” Deputy Renouf said.

Dr Muscat said that if the current trend of 40 new cases being identified every day continues on a linear basis, this would lead to 560 cases by Boxing Day and 6,000 islanders in isolation. 

Pictured: The chart shows the number of cases by Boxing Day based on a linear growth.

In that situation, it is expected 2.6 people being admitted to the hospital on a daily basis due to covid-19 and a total of 36 patients being in the at any one time hospital as a result of the virus. “That’s quite significant,” he commented.

Discussing the figures, the Health Minister appeared visibly angry, noting how the current situation had been caused by people not taking responsibility or acting like they should have.

The Deputy Medical Officer for Health however moved to reassure islanders that the measures announced tonight would help prevent this progression.

Concluding his address, the Chief Minister urged islanders to “follow these new measures and to protect those more vulnerable than ourselves."

“Please stay safe and do your part to limit the spread,” he said.

“Because this December, the most important gift we can give to our most vulnerable Islanders is the chance to safely enjoy this period, without facing undue risk.”