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In a year of tough decisions, it looks like Jersey’s politicians will have one more on their list this week: whether to remove the Chief Minister, and the rest of his team, along with him.
Coming in the week when its closest partner enters 'lockdown two', and with around eight weeks until the island is forced to ‘walk the plank’ into a new relationship with its closest neighbour, the timing is awful.
But, as ever, the political rhythm is dictated by the drumbeat of events, rather than any grand strategy.
No one can say it hasn’t been coming. John Le Fondré has been protected so far by being at the head of team which has basically got covid ‘right’. Actions have spoken louder than words, and the criticism of his earlier public performances has rightly been trumped by getting the actual decisions correct.
Pictured: Chief Minister John Le Fondré (right) and his predecessor, Senator Ian Gorst, the current External Relations Minister.
Timing is all, and in March, with what the island was facing as it entered lockdown, removing the government would have been deeply irresponsible.
But, fast-forward eight months, and it is just possible that Senator Le Fondré has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory; firstly, by not publishing a population policy; and secondly, through his management of the Parker Permissions.
He gave permission for the CEO’s side-hustle – but he didn’t properly inform either other Ministers, or the States’ Employment Board. Last week, someone gave permission for an official government statement saying the Deputy Chief Minister also agreed it – he didn’t.
And so, in the light of those events, from a previously strong position, the Chief Minister is now fighting for his political future.
Pictured: Senator Kristina Moore, who says she is bringing the confidence vote.
Will the sharpest ‘slap on the wrist’ open to them (a confidence vote) be enough to show their disapproval; or will the perception that the reins on his CEO are too long end up hanging him, buoyed by the view that if – as we are regularly told – our senior politicians are always simply following the latest medical advice, why should it matter if they are replaced…but the same medical advisors remain?
In the toughest of times, that is an extra battle which the Chief Minister didn’t need; and didn’t need to have.
Jersey is an inherently stable place politically, which suggests that Senator Le Fondré will still survive this week; but the control he exerts (or doesn’t) over his CEO is a deep fault-line in his government, and it will need more than the carefully-crafted apologies, flimsy reviews, and promises of 'lessons learnt' to close it up.
It speaks directly to the strength of his leadership something which he will know, is still openly questioned.
If he can show that strength, he'll get the permission to continue - if not...he has already given States Members the knife they need.
